The COVID-19 pandemic has severely disrupted global economic activity, and led to both demand- and supply-side shocks to the Singapore economy.

Given the fast-evolving situation, it is important for policymakers to leverage high-frequency and realtime economic indicators to monitor the effects of COVID-19 on the Singapore economy.

The impact of COVID-19 on the Singapore economy has been significant. Sectors that have been the most severely affected are those that rely on international travel, including the air transport, accommodation and other tourism-related sectors.Consumer-facing sectors such as retail and food services have also been badly affected by the cutback in domestic consumption amidst progressively stricter safe distancing measures. At the same time, outward-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade have been affected by the fall in external demand and supply chain disruptions, while domestically-oriented sectors like construction and real estate have been affected by negative spillovers arising from the downturn in the domestic economy. However, there are also bright spots in the economy, with the rise in demand for online sales and services.

Taking these factors into account, MTI has further downgraded the 2020 GDP growth forecast for the Singapore economy to “-7.0 per cent to -4.0 per cent”, from “-4.0 per cent to -1.0 per cent”.

The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

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